Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Thursday, September 24, 2009

The Beauty of Finance


Sarah Palin, once mocked in the press and on television for her vacuum of foreign policy skills, her implosive domestic agenda, and her slippery-fingertip grasp of economics, has finally shown her true colors. She is a financial genius, on the same level as Jim Cramer, Richard Nixon, and Herbert Hoover.

Speaking in Hong Kong at an annual conference of investors, Palin has finally cracked the code that led to our current global economic malaise, an issue that has already been explored by dozens of books, magazine articles, and television documentaries, all helmed by leading pundits, regulators, economists, traders, banking experts, and financiers. Contrary to this treasure trove of insight, in her opinion the fault line lay in too much government regulation.

Alan Greenspan, the legendary head of the Federal Reserve, has said, "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms." He went on to admit, "“I have found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I have been very distressed by that fact.” Under questioning by Rep. Henry Waxman at a congressional hearing, Greenspan even went to far as to agree that his world view, his entire ideology of deregulation was wrong. According to man who headed the most powerful financial institution in the world for 19 years, it was a lack of regulation that fomented the collapse. But from Palin's perspective, Greenspan is old and not very pretty, so he is not to be believed. Did Greenspan ever kill a wolf from a helicopter or put on hip waders for a news conference? I think I've made my point.

Numerous experts have pointed to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act with the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, a bill that removed the separation between commercial and investment banks, and the Commodities Futures Modernization Act, which eliminated penalties for outright gambling by investment houses, as key components of the meltdown. Further, a multitude of insiders point to a dysfunctional SEC as a contributing factor; this was an agency that for 16 years didn't notice the largest swindle in history, the Madoff scandal. Madoff's hedge fund was a Ponzi scheme, the oldest trick in the book and one that an MBA student could have uncovered, let alone the chief securities regulator.

Several investors walked out on her speech, but that only showed how their "reality-based" worldview will limit the possibilities for the future. Palin lives in a universe where Ayn Rand is the Supreme Creator, an alternate existence where the removal of all restraint will inspire trust and confidence in the markets. The French, the Russians, and the Iranians have already experienced this happy place of social Darwinism presided over by a discompassionate oligarchy, and as a result, the world received the benefits of the guillotine, Stalin's communism, and Islamic fundamentalism.

Perhaps this is Palin's strategy - we'll all have to buy lots of guns and move to Alaska while we await the apocalypse. Oh, joy!

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Conflicting Information


The latest 30-year U.S. treasury bond auction has concluded, and it was a great success for the government and its insatiable thirst for borrowing. Demand was high, driving down the the yield to 4.268%, well below the expected range of 4.27-4.29%. Additionally, the bid to cover was, at 2.92, the highest since the 30 year was reintroduced in 2006.

All of this seems to conflict with the believed state of the economy.
The stock markets are expected to recover, and in fact, have rebounded nicely off the lows and seem to be stabilized with moderate earnings growth forecasts for a limited but growing number of public companies. Gold bugs are betting on higher inflation and have backed those bets by driving the price of Au above $1000 per ounce. Existing home sales, while still a buyer's market, are bouncing back. The $USD is fairing poorly, and there is talk of creating a new global standard of monetization (ie. New Bretton Woods).

So, given all of that data, why were people gobbling up long-term Treasuries at discounted rates? Do they know something we don't, or are they just hedging their bets?