Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Will the iPhone go the way of the Betamax dodo?

The iPhone has experienced extraordinary sales, even for a visionary product company like Apple. In only two years, and with only two models available, the iPhone has logged 17 million purchases. Translated to the latest quarter, Apple owns 10.8% of the worldwide sales of smartphones, a remarkable feat considering the limited product launch service availability: US (AT&T), UK (O2), Germany (T-Mobile), and France (Orange). With the availability of the iPhone 3GS, Apple's European market has driven into Italy, Spain, and Switzerland and, as of June 16, expanded into Asia with rolling country-by-country launch dates extending through August.

It's all very impressive, yet I wonder if the iPhone will ultimately become extinct? There was another product many years ago that generated a similar buzz, a product that heralded a new paradigm of entertainment - the Sony Betamax video cassette recorder.

The Betamax revolutionized video entertainment with high fidelity video quality, ease of use (if you don't try to program the record unit), and simple playback controls. And the Betamax died because it could not support a tape with more than two hours of content. If you wanted to watch a movie with 2:01 hours in length, you missed the last minute, and considering that VCR sales had a high correlation - suggesting causation - with the sales of prerecorded pornographic video tapes, missing the last minute was unacceptable to most connoisseurs of the medium. A competing tape format, VHS, could hold up to 6 hours on a single tape, admittedly grainy and of lesser quality overall, but perhaps that was part of its cachet. How long you can stay up is an important product attribute for VCRs, and phones for that matter.

Among all the problems plaguing the iPhone, none is more important than battery life. In the U.S., it's only available on the AT&T network, a service provider that is despised by millions. But this won't matter; the phone has been cracked and can operate on other networks. The iPhone is fragile; a short drop will result in a display that looks like it followed a Terex mining truck down a gravel road. But an entire industry in protective foam cases has arisen out of demand for Apple's consumer products. Some iPhones have exploded, but only in France. Stay out of France and you won't blow your head off while watching Lindsey Lohan puking on YouTube. Yet, the Betamax longevity issue remains.

The original iPhone had just enough juice to satisfy the innovators and early adopters who were willing to sacrifice basic survival for COOL. Then, Apple redesigned it for sleek lines and aerodynamic worthiness. In the process, they removed 15% of the battery volume and created a handset that must be recharged several times a day if you use the video screen, which is classified by experts as a "power hog." Another power sponge is any application that uses the 3G network, such as email, web surfing, texting, etc. The method to extend iPhone battery life is to disconnect from a 3G network and turn off the video display. Yes, if you turn your $600 iPhone into a $50 dumb phone, it will last all day.

The early majority market share must have a wireless device with sufficient battery life to accommodate being trapped in a 757 on the tarmac for 13 hours, give or take. Either battery technology must improve dramatically, which experts are not predicting, or battery recharging technology must accommodate super-fast charging cycles. If not, the iPhone may be next seen on "The Antiques Roadshow."

No comments:

Post a Comment